Avalanche Forecast
Issued: May 1st, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs, Loose Wet and Cornices.
mconlan,
Avalanche Canada
Cariboos, Kootenay Boundary, Lizard-Flathead, North Columbia, North Rockies, Purcells, South Columbia, South Rockies, Blue River, Clearwater, McBride, Premier, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, Shuswap, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, North Okanagan, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan, Dogtooth, East Purcell, Moyie, St. Mary, West Purcell, Bonnington, Grohman, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Rossland, South Okanagan, Ymir, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler, Glacier.
A very high freezing level is destabilizing the snowpack. Resulting avalanches could travel to valley bottom. Read more in this Forecasters' Blog.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
We expect a natural cycle of wet loose and slab avalanches, cornice failures, as well as the potential for very large persistent and deep persistent slab avalanches for the foreseeable future.
Snowpack Summary
A moist snow surface is expected.
The intense addition of heat to the snowpack is reawakening dormant weak layers, including weak snow above crusts buried in late March (50 to 100 cm deep) and the weak basal facets found at the bottom of the snowpack. The timing of when and where persistent slabs will reawaken is uncertain, but will increase with each day of warming.
The snowpack is diminishing below treeline, but persistent and deep persistent slab avalanches could release at higher elevations and run into valley bottoms.
Weather Summary
A ridge of high pressure is in place, bringing mostly sunny skies with freezing levels between 3300 m and 4000 m for the next few days. No overnight refreeze is expected.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
- Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of runout zones.
- Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
- The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
- The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Expect very large avalanches to release on buried weak layers as intense warming destabilizes the snowpack. Layers of concern include weak snow above hard crusts buried about 50 to 100 cm deep and weak facets near the bottom of the snowpack.
Human triggered avalanches are most likely in steep, shallow, and rocky terrain, where the snowpack is relatively thin.
Naturally triggered avalanches could occur without warning and are most likely on days when there isn't a good overnight refreeze. Resulting avalanches could travel far and even into snow-free valleys. For this reason, recognizing and avoiding areas with large overhead avalanche slopes, even if they are out of sight, is very important.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Wet loose avalanche activity is expected with daytime warming and during periods of strong sun. This problem can quickly change over the day, with activity ramping up as the sun starts shining on steep slopes.
Wet slabs are also possible, particularly on sun-exposed slopes where a buried melt-freeze crust exists in the upper snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Cornices are large at this time of year and will become more prone to fail as they warm up with spring weather. Stay well back from them when on ridgelines and limit your exposure when travelling on slopes below them, as their release is unpredictable. Cornice falls could trigger very large slab avalanches on slopes below them.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: May 2nd, 2023 4:00PM
