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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2024–Jan 31st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary, Lizard-Flathead, Bonnington, Grohman, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Rossland, Ymir, Flathead, Crawford, Moyie, St. Mary, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla.

Until cold temperatures lock in this hot mess of a snowpack, dangerous avalanche conditions with persist.

It's a good idea to avoid avalanche terrain and spend time at the ski resort.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred in the past few days as rain impacted the snowpack. Numerous large (size 2-3) wet slab, persistent slab, and wet loose avalanches have been reported from all aspects and elevations.

Until the snowpack gets locked in by cold temperatures, human-triggered avalanches remain likely. Avoid overhead exposure, very large natural avalanches are possible and have the potential to run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has created a moist or wet upper snowpack at all elevations. A weak surface crust may have formed overnight but will break down quickly throughout the day.

The snowpack has two buried weak layers of concern. A layer of facets and surface hoar buried 30 to 60 cm deep. A crust and facet combo from the new year down 80 to 100 cm. Elevated freezing levels have made these layers more reactive.

Currently, the mid and lower snowpack is generally well-bonded, featuring a thick crust near its base.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Cloudy with clear periods. Alpine wind 10 to 30 km/h from the south. Treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level 2500 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated showers. Alpine wind southeast 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level 2600 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Alpine wind southeast 15 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature 0 °C, freezing level 2300 m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with wet flurries, up to 5 mm accumulation. Alpine wind northwest 5 to 25 km/h. Treeline temperature 0 °C, freezing level 2100 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Very large and destructive avalanches could reach valley bottom.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.