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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2023–Jan 7th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary, Lizard-Flathead, Bonnington, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Rossland, Ymir, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

Avoid steep, rocky terrain where the snowpack is shallow. It is these isolated features where human triggering of the deep persistent weak layers is still possible.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Two large natural avalanches were reported in the west of the region that occurred in a steep, shallow, rocky terrain features above 2000 m

Going forward these isolate terrain features: Thin, rocky areas where the melt-freeze crust is not found or less robust should be avoided.

Snowpack Summary

New snow starting with flurries tonight and continuing through tomorrow will bury/further bury various surfaces. These surfaces consist of crusts on steep south-facing slopes, surface hoar that developed over the past few days, and in sheltered areas 30 to 40 cm of soft snow.

A hard melt-freeze crust can be found up to 2000 m. Where it is robust enough to do so, this crust will make deeper instabilities difficult to trigger.

Above 2000 m where the December 26 melt-freeze crust is thin or non-existent the two persistent weak layers may still be triggered in steep, shallow, rocky terrain features. The two layers of concern are:

  • A surface hoar/crust layer buried in mid-December down 60 to 80 cm.

  • A surface hoar/facet layer buried in mid-November down 80 to 150 cm deep.

Weather Summary

Friday night

Cloudy with clear breaks, the chance of flurries possibility of freezing rain, 10 to 20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature around -5 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy, 5 to 10 cm new snow, to 20 to 40 km/h, treeline temperature -4 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy, 5 to 10 cm of new snow, heaviest overnight, 20 to 40 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -5 °C

Monday

Cloudy with possible sunny breaks, with flurries tapering through the morning. 20 to 30 km/h southerly winds, treeline temperatures -6 °C

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.