Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Banff, Banff Yoho Kootenay, East Side 93N, Field, Kootenay, LLSA, Lake Louise, Little Yoho, Sunshine, West Side 93N.
Weather inputs such as new snow, temperatures, and wind are uncertain in the models and across the geographical range of the forecast area. If at the local level, the weather inputs are greater than expected, use an extra degree of caution in your decision-making process.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Lake Louise patrol reported ski-cutting very small avalanches in high alpine lee terrain. Sunshine patrol reported similar. A Parks Canada forecaster reported a large whumph at the Olive/St. Nic col in low-angle terrain. Otherwise, no avalanches were observed or reported.
Snowpack Summary
Small amounts of storm snow (up to 10cm) overlies a variety of crusts up to ~2800m on solar aspects, and up to ~2300m on northerly aspects. In the high alpine, this will overlie settled and wind-affected snow
Our main concern for persistent layers is shallow snowpack areas on northerly alpine aspects where no crusts are found in the upper snowpack and the midpack is thinner/weaker. Triggering the Feb 3 facet/crust layer and basal depth hoar remains possible.
Weather Summary
Small amounts of snow are expected over the next few days but the models are a bit conflicted. Up to 20cm could be possible by day's end on Friday near Lake Louise. The wind will taper off to the light range and switch to an Easterly flow. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler than seasonal with the ridge about -10 and the valley just above zero in the warmest part of the day.
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Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Strong to extreme South Westerly wind combined with new snow early Wednesday could produce wind-slabs in isolated lee pockets.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
The Feb 3 layer is down 60-110 cm. In shallow snowpack areas on northerly alpine aspects, this layer remains sensitive to skiers, with remote triggering observed in several instances. All the recent avalanches that initiated on this layer stepped down to the basal facets/ground.
Aspects: North, North East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Loose Wet
The wet loose problem will be dependent on how warm it becomes below treeline, and this is uncertain in the weather models. The warmer it is at the local level, the higher the likelihood of loose wet avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2