Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 15th, 2024 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.
mhalik,
Avalanche Canada
Avoid being in or under avalanche terrain.
Intense spring sun and rising temperatures have increased the risk of large natural and rider-triggered avalanches.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday and Thrusday, several large and very large natural and human-triggered avalanches were reported. Notable was a large (size 3) natural avalanche southeast of Nelson on a north aspect in the alpine. See photo for details. Also, check this MIN report for details of a large avalanche west of Kimberly.
Looking forward to a very warm and sunny weekend, we expect the potential for both human and naturally triggered avalanches to remain likely.
Snowpack Summary
During the day, frozen and crusty surface snow will melt and turn moist or slushy due to high freezing levels combined with intense sun. This will be especially prevalent on sunny slopes and at lower elevations. This will cause the avalanche hazard to rise as the day warms. High-elevation shady north-facing slopes may still have some dry snow.
A weak layer of surface hoar is buried 40-60 cm in some areas. A widespread crust with sugary facets above is buried 120-160 cm deep. Both of these layers remain very concerning for human triggering.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Clear. No new snow expected. 30 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature falling to 0 °C. Freezing level around 3000 m with a potential temperature inversion below 1600 m.
Saturday
Sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h northeast ridgetop wind.Treeline high around 12 °C. Freezing level around 3200 m.
Sunday
Sunny. No new snow expected. 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline high around 12 °C. Freezing level rising to 3200 m.
Monday
Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high around 12 °C. Freezing level rising to 3300 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
- Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
- As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
We expect persistent weak layers to become even more active as the temperature increases. Cornices are also weakening, and large falling cornice chunks could trigger big avalanches on a persistent weak layer.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Freezing levels are rising, and the spring sun packs a punch. The chance of loose wet avalanches will increase throughout the day.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 16th, 2024 4:00PM
