Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 14th, 2024 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.
bchristie,
Avalanche Canada
Avoid being in or under avalanche terrain.
Intense spring sun and rising temperatures are making large natural avalanches likely.
Summary
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
On wednesday, natural and human triggered avalanche activity in the recent storm snow continued to be reported. Notable was a large (size 3) natural avalanche southeast of Nelson on a north aspect in the alpine, see photo for more details. Also, see this MIN report for details of a large avalanche west of Kimberly.
Destructive, full path avalanches have been less common in the last week, but looking forward to a warm, sunny weekend, we expect them to become frequent again.
Snowpack Summary
With sunny skies and rising freezing levels, expect to see deeper wet snow on the surface as the day goes on. 40-60 cm of recent snow is currently not bonding well with firm surfaces and weak feathery crystals underneath. Forecasting warm temperatures will likely make this problem worse in the short term.
A widespread crust with weak facets above is buried 120-160 cm deep and remains a very concerning layer for human triggering. While recent reports suggest this layer was becoming harder to trigger, we expect it will become more active again as temperatures rise.
The snowpack below the crust is generally strong.
Weather Summary
Any night-time cooling will be restricted to near valley bottom, the alpine will stay well above 0 °C.
Thursday Night
Clear. No new snow expected. Light northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise to 2700 m, with treeline high around 2 °C.
Friday
Sunny. No new snow expected. Light north or northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise to 3100 m, with treeline high around 6 °C.
Saturday
Sunny. No new snow expected. Light northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 3200 m, with treeline high around 7 °C.
Sunday
Sunny. No new snow expected. Light southeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 3200 m, with treeline high around 7 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
- Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm snow is not bonding well with the old snow surface. Natural avalanches are likely. Use extra caution around ridgecrests, rolls, and on convex slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
We expect persistent weak layers to become more active as the temperature increases. Cornices are also weakening, and large falling cornice chunks could trigger an even bigger avalanche on a persistent weak layer.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Freezing levels are rising, and the spring sun packs a punch. Loose moist snow on the surface will get deeper through the day, increasing the chance of loose wet avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 15th, 2024 4:00PM
