Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crawford, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, Moyie, South Rockies, St. Mary.
Start your day early and watch the crust closely.
As it breaks down, reduce your exposure to avalanche terrain.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, a small wet loose avalanche (size 1.5) was reported near Fernie in the early afternoon.
No other avalanches have been observed since Monday. However, observations are very limited at this time of year.
Snowpack Summary
On northerly slopes in the alpine, there may still be around 20 cm of soft snow from earlier in the week, potentially wind affected in exposed areas. Everywhere else, it's likely a crust will form overnight and break down during the day. Another crust is buried 20 to 30 cm deep.
The mid/lower snowpack is well settled and strong, but may weaken with continued high temperatures.
Lower elevations are melting out rapidly.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Clear skies. 10 to 20 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level (at least) 2500 m.
Saturday
A mix of sun and cloud. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 9 °C. Freezing level (at least) 2800 m.
Sunday
Mix of sun and cloud. 10 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6 °C. Freezing level 2700 m.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with up to 10 cm/mm of snow/rain. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2700 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- The more the snowpack warms up and weakens, the more conservative your terrain selection should be.
- Avoid steep, sun-exposed slopes when the air temperature is warm or when solar radiation is strong.
- Avalanche danger will increase as the surface crust breaks down.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Avalanche Problems
Wet Slabs
Multiple days of warm temperatures and minimal overnight cooling may cause large, wet slab avalanches.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Loose Wet
Wet loose avalanches will become more likely as the sun and warmth affect the snowpack. Start early, and avoid the hottest part of the day.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Cornices
Cornices are more likely to fail during warm weather.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5