Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 2nd, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
GS,
Avalanche Canada
The current conditions are complex and require a big-picture strategy of avoiding terrain features with wide margins. Trying to outsmart the snow by going a few meters left or right is not the right approach at this time. Step back and ask yourself if you should even be there in the first place. Human-triggered avalanches are likely in most avalanche starting zones.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanche activity has dropped off but human-triggered avalanches remain likely. This is a small persistent slab that was triggered near Bow Summit recently. Ski areas are both reporting results from all uncontrolled terrain. A skier-triggered avalanche in the Emerald Lake slide path occurred Saturday on the basal facets resulting in life-threatening injuries.
Snowpack Summary
10-20 cm of soft surface snow in many areas gives good ski quality providing there is a base underneath. The upper part of the snowpack is now a settled slab and the lower part is active two persistent weak layers with snowpack tests showing sudden failures. All slopes steep enough to slide should be considered suspect right now.
Weather Summary
A ridge of high pressure persists over the region for the next few days providing mostly sunny weather and seasonal temperatures. For Tuesday expect clear skies, temperature from -5 to -12 and light winds from the southwest. The long-range forecast looks pretty dry for the next 10 days.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
The bottom of the snowpack is very weak and faceted. Avalanches have been occurring on this layer, or starting higher in the snowpack and "stepping down" to these basal facets causing large avalanches. Anywhere a slab is present over the basal facets we expect human triggering to be likely and remote triggering to be possible.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Slabs 25-60cm thick sit over a Dec. 17 weak layer of facets that was on the surface during the prolonged deep freeze. Test results show "sudden" failures which indicate that human triggering is likely. Watch for this in all open slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2023 4:00PM
