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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 28th, 2023–Dec 29th, 2023
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Despite the "Moderate" avalanche danger the weak nature of the lower snowpack is still a concern. Human triggered avalanches are still possible as demonstrated by the full depth avalanche on Helen Shoulder on Wednesday. Caution around steeper features and larger alpine terrain is warranted.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday a group near Helen Shoulder remote triggered (from 30 m) a size 2 two avalanche on a south aspect at 2450m. The avalanche failed on the deep persistent layer near the ground.

Snowpack Summary

Wind effect, scouring and isolated hard wind slabs can be found in the alpine and some locations at treeline. Sheltered areas at and below treeline have large surface hoar over top of loose faceted snow. The mid-pack contains a rain-crust (below 2300m) in most areas and is somewhat settled and (mostly) supportive to skiers.

The base of the snowpack is a mix of weak facets and depth hoar.

Treeline snow depths range from 60-100 cm.

Weather Summary

A ridge of high pressure over the area will result in mostly clear skies and no forecasted snow through Saturday. Ridge-top winds will be light to moderate from the south-west. Freezing levels will be near valley bottom with a chance of an above freezing layer near 2500m on Saturday.

For more information, click Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The bottom layers of the snowpack are facetted and weak in most areas. Given the unpredictable nature of this problem, use caution when venturing on to any steeper slope.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Most of the alpine is either scoured or wind pressed however lingering wind slabs can still be found. If triggered, these wind slabs could step down to the basal facets.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2