Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 1st, 2024 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.
GS,
Avalanche Canada
The avalanche cycle resulting from this week's very warm temperatures is now over, and the recovery has begun. Cooling temperatures will quickly improve the avalanche danger, but backcountry travel conditions are brutal: breakable crust. Hope is on the way this weekend though, as a 10 cm storm is forecast and the rebuild can begin.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported at the ski areas or in the backcountry on Thursday. The avalanche cycle from the past week is essentially over. The snowpack has yet to recover, but thin crusts forming on the surface by Thursday morning have begun the healing process.
Snowpack Summary
Warm temperatures and rain at low elevations over the past week created moist surface snow up to at least 2400 m, which will begin to freeze overnight Thursday and result in a strong melt-freeze crust forming on the snow surface (rugged travel conditions). The impact of this warming on the snowpack layering has yet to be evaluated, but expect the snowpack strength to increase dramatically as it refreezes.
Weather Summary
Temperatures are falling and will rapidly cool off starting Friday and more on Saturday under cloudy skies. By Saturday morning, expect valley bottom temperatures of -6 and alpine temperatures of -10. Winds will be light and switch to the north on Saturday bringing 5-10 cm of snow for the main part of the region over the weekend. Southeast areas (upslope) could see up to 25 cm with relatively light winds.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
- The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Slabs formed over facets/surface hoar formed in January were very active over recent days but with the cooling, their likelihood of avalanching is significantly reduced. As the temps continue to cool this problem will stabilize but may still exist at higher elevations where the snow remains dry.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
The cooling trend will stabilize this problem, especially at the treeline but it remains a question in alpine areas where the snow is still dry and the base of the snowpack consists of weak facets and depth hoar. Reevaluate this problem carefully over the coming days.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 2nd, 2024 4:00PM
