Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos, Kakwa, McBride, McGregor, North Rockies, Pine Pass, Quesnel, Renshaw, Robson, Sugarbowl, Tumbler.
With a problematic persistent layer, it's critical to stay disciplined and choose only well-supported, low-consequence lines.
A moderate danger rating means that large human-triggered avalanches are possible in isolated areas.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
A natural avalanche was observed near Renshaw on a steep northeasterly slope on Friday. Old debris from a small wind slab was also reported near McBride from a convex wind-loaded slope. Earlier this week, a rider was accidentally caught in a large avalanche near Yanks Peak. The avalanche was triggered near a rock outcrop and most of the slope slid.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Between 15-20 cm of light snow is now overlying the recent dense storm snow. New snow has been redistributed to northerly aspects at higher elevations. Fresh soft slabs may not bond well to previous surfaces, such as hard wind-pressed snow or a crust.
Down 40-60 cm, the mid-December widespread weak layer of facets grains and /or surface hoar can be found. This layer was responsible for large natural and human-triggered avalanches since Dec 27 in the Cariboos.
At lower elevations, a rain crust is present 10-20 cm from the surface. The November weak layer lies around 75 to 160 cm below the surface. There is still a potential for smaller avalanches to step down to this deeper layer.
The snowpack is still fairly thin and faceted, with roughly 150 to 175 cm at treeline.
Weather Summary
Periods of snow will persist overnight as the coastal system weakens. An upper ridge will begin to build late Sunday, and fair weather is expected for the weekdays.
Saturday
Light snow 2 cm, westerly ridge winds at 50 km/h, treeline temperatures around -8 °C. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom.
Sunday
Cloudy, flurries, northwesterly ridge winds up to 45 km/, treeline temperatures around -5 °C. Freezing level around 750 m.
Monday
Mainly sunny, no precipitation, southwesterly ridge winds at 40 km/, treeline temperatures around -10 °C.
Tuesday
Mainly sunny, no precipitation, southwesterly ridge winds at 30 km/, treeline temperatures around -12 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
- Choose simple, low-angle, well supported terrain without convexities.
- Be especially cautious near rock outcroppings, on steep convexities and anywhere the snowpack feels thinner than average.
- Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Triggering persistent slabs avalanches will remain possible as the mid-December widespread weak layer is down 40 to 60 cm. Use extra caution where the snowpack varies from thick to thin, near rock outcrops and convexities. Larger-than-expected avalanches are possible due to the presence of a deeper weak layer.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
Upcoming winds will likely form wind slabs in localized open terrain and near ridge tops. Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain. Slabs in motion may step down to deeper weak layers, resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2