Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
Watch for changing conditions with sun and warm temperatures.
Avoid traveling in or under large, open slopes, buried weak layers remain capable of producing large avalanches.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday near Fernie, explosive avalanche control produced cornice and storm slab avalanches in the alpine.
Over the weekend, large persistent slab avalanches continued, triggered by riders and naturally by cornice falls onto the slope below. A fatal avalanche occurred in nearby Kananaskis Country on Sunday, where a similar snowpack structure exists.
Snowpack Summary
Around 30-40 cm of recent storm snow has fallen over a generally settled upper snowpack. Cornices are currently large and looming. With sunny skies and rising freezing levels, expect to see more moist or wet snow on the surface as the day goes on.
80-150 cm below the snow surface, a widespread crust with weak facets above remains a concerning layer for human triggering.
The snowpack below the crust is generally strong.
Weather Summary
Wednesday
Partly cloudy. Very localised snowfall, up to 5 cm. Light southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom, with treeline low around -5 °C.
Thursday
Partly cloudy morning, sunny afternoon. No new snow expected. Light west ridgetop wind. Freezing rising to 2000 m. Treeline high around 0 °C.
Friday
Sunny. No new snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 2900 m. Treeline high around 4 °C.
Saturday
Sunny. No new snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level 2900 m. Treeline high around 6 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
- Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
- Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
Avalanche Problems
Cornices
Cornices are large and looming. With sun and rising temperatures, they may fail naturally, and a large trigger like that could potentially start a large avalanche on a persistent weak layer.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Persistent Slabs
Avoid areas where the snowpack thins, like steep, rocky start zones at treeline and alpine elevations. Weak layers are more easily triggered here.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Loose Wet
Freezing levels are rising, and the spring sun packs a punch. Loose moist snow on the surface will get deeper through the day, increasing the chance of loose wet avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2