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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 17th, 2023–Mar 18th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Storm slabs formed earlier in the week may continue to be reactive to human triggers at upper elevations; especially on sunny aspects.

Northerly aspects at upper elevations will offer the best riding conditions.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous explosive triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported on primarily sunny aspects at treeline and above on Thursday. They were failing on a crust down 30-40 cm.

Additionally, two explosive triggered very large (size 2.5) persistent slab avalanches were reported on east and northwest aspects in the alpine southwest of Nelson. It is uncertain which layer these avalanches failed on, but they were suspected to be 100-200 cm deep.

Snowpack Summary

Expect to find sun crust on the surface of steep, sunny aspects.

Strong solar radiation has settled the 30-50 cm of recent snow into a storm slab which has been especially reactive to human triggers on sunny aspects where it overlies a crust.

Strong south wind during the storm earlier in the week have added to slab formation on lee aspects at treeline and above.

The recent snow is sitting on a variety of surfaces. These include sun crust on sunny aspects and surface hoar (3-5 mm) on some shady and sheltered slopes.

A layer of surface hoar or sun crust, aspect dependent, that was formed in mid-February can be found down 80 to 110 cm.

The lower snowpack includes a layer of weak sugary facets near the ground. These facets are slowly gaining strength and no recent avalanches have been reported on this layer. However, we continue to track the layer and watch for any signs of it becoming active.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Clear skies / 10 km/h south ridgetop wind / Temperature at treeline around -7 C / Freezing level valley bottom

Saturday

Mostly sunny / 10 km/h south ridgetop wind / Temperature at treeline around -2 C / Freezing level 1800 m

Sunday

Increasing cloudiness / 20 km/h southeast ridgetop wind / Temperature at treeline around -1 C / Freezing level 1900 m

Monday

Cloudy with isolated flurries; 3-10 cm / 20 km/h southeast ridgetop wind / Temperature at treeline around -3 C / Freezing level 1600 m

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs formed earlier in the week may continue to be reactive to human triggers at upper elevations; especially on sunny aspects.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5