Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
Human triggering large avalanches is very likely. Travel in or near any consequential avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Explosives and riders triggered many small to large (size 1 to 2) storm and wind slabs on Wednesday, primarily out of alpine terrain. They were mostly 20 to 50 cm deep.
A fatal avalanche incident occurred on Saturday near Gardiner Creek. It is believed that it occurred on the early-February layer described in the Snowpack Summary. You can read more details here.
Looking forward, it remains likely that humans could trigger high-consequence slab avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
Substantial snowfall associated with strong southwest wind and warming quickly built storm slabs that will likely remain very touchy. These slabs are loading weak faceted snow, surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, and a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes.
A widespread crust that formed in early February is buried around 80 to 120 cm deep. Weak faceted grains may be found above the crust, which is a recipe for high-consequence avalanches.
The remainder of the snowpack is generally settled.
Weather Summary
Thursday Night
Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -9 °C.
Friday
Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow. 20 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -13 °C.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- Persistent slabs have potential to pull back to lower angle terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Substantial snow accumulation has formed thick storm slabs. These slabs are loading various weak layers and sliding surfaces. Expect these slabs to be touchy to human traffic.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of faceted grains above a melt-freeze crust buried 80 to 150 cm deep is a recipe for large, high-consequence avalanches. This snowpack setup will take some time to strengthen.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5