Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
Very large persistent slab avalanches remain likely to human trigger, especially at treeline and above.
Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Numerous naturally triggered wet loose avalanches were reported on sunny aspects at all elevations on Sunday.
Snowpack Summary
A weak surface crust forming overnight will break down quickly throughout the day.
Cornices have become large and looming, and are more likely to fail during periods of warming.
A widespread, hard crust down 80-200 cm with weak facets above continues to be the primary layer of concern for natural and human triggering of very large persistent slab avalanches.
Weather Summary
Monday Night
Clear skies. 30 to 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.
Tuesday
Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2500 m.
Wednesday
Mix of sun and cloud. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.
Thursday
Cloudy with flurries, 3 to 5 cm of snow (above 1400m). 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1700 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
- If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A crust with weak facets overtop is down 80 to 200 cm. Very large human triggered avalanches occurring on this layer are likely on Tuesday, especially at treeline and above.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 4
Cornices
Cornices are large, looming and will likely trigger very large persistent slab avalanches when they fail.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Loose Wet
If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers, resulting in very large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5