Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. An avalanche cycle is expected with substantial snow accumulation.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
A few natural and explosive triggered storm slab avalanches were observed on Tuesday, which were generally 40 cm deep.
A naturally triggered persistent slab occurred on the early-February layer described in the Snowpack Summary. It occurred on a northeast aspect in the alpine and was 80 cm deep.
A fatal avalanche incident occurred on Saturday near Gardiner Creek. It is believed that it occurred on the early-February layer. You can read more details here.
Snowpack Summary
Substantial snowfall and a warming trend are quickly building storm slabs that will be very touchy. These will sit on previously reactive storm slabs that sit on weak faceted snow, surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, or a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes.
A widespread crust that formed in early February is buried around 80 to 150 cm deep. Weak faceted grains may be found above the crust, which is a recipe for high-consequence avalanches.
The remainder of the snowpack is generally settled.
Weather Summary
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with 15 to 30 cm of snow. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1400 m.
Thursday
Cloudy with 15 to 30 cm of snow. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.
Friday
Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow. 20 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- Persistent slabs have potential to pull back to lower angle terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Substantial amounts of snow continues to accumulate, loading various weak layers and sliding surfaces. Strong wind will make these deposits even toucher in wind-loaded terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of faceted grains above a melt-freeze crust buried 80 to 150 cm deep is a recipe for large, high-consequence avalanches. This snowpack setup will take some time to strengthen.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5