Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 15th, 2024 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Cornices and Loose Wet.
mhalik,
Avalanche Canada
Avoid being in or under avalanche terrain.
Intense spring sun and rising temperatures have increased the risk of large natural and rider-triggered avalanches.
Summary
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday and Thursday, several large natural, explosive, and rider-triggered avalanches occurred in the Fernie area.
Most notably, one skier was buried in a large avalanche that they triggered off Mt.Fernie. Luckily they were able to self-rescue, and everyone is ok.
Looking forward, we expect that sun and warm temperatures will create the potential for widespread, large, natural and rider-triggered avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
During the day, frozen and crusty surface snow will melt and turn moist or slushy due to high freezing levels combined with intense sun. This will be especially prevalent on sunny slopes and at lower elevations. This will cause the avalanche hazard to rise as the day warms. High-elevation shady north-facing slopes may still have some dry snow.
Cornices are currently large and looming, and will become more unstable during periods of warming. See photo below.
80-150 cm below the snow surface, a widespread crust with weak facets overtop remains a concerning layer for human triggering.
The snowpack below the crust is generally strong.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Mostly clear. No new snow expected. 5 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around 0 °C. Freezing level around 2800 m with a temperature inversion below 1500 m.
Saturday
Sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 2800 m. Treeline high around 8 °C.
Sunday
Sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 3500 m. Treeline high around 9 °C.
Monday
Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 3200 m. Treeline high around 8 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
- Avoid runout zones of avalanche paths on solar aspects, avalanches could run full-path if triggered.
- If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
A crust with weak facets overtop is buried 80 to 150 cm. The likelihood of this layer being triggered is expected to increase with daytime warming.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Cornices are large and looming. With sun and rising temperatures, they may fail naturally, and a large trigger like that could potentially start an avalanche on a persistent weak layer.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Freezing levels are rising, and the spring sun packs a punch. The chance of loose wet avalanches will increase throughout the day.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 16th, 2024 4:00PM
