Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
The snowpack remains primed for human triggering. Conservative terrain selection remains critical.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Numerous natural, skier, and explosive-triggered avalanches up to size 3 have been a daily occurrence over the last few days. Several of these avalanches have failed on or scrubbed down to the crust/facet layer buried early in February.
Looking forward, it remains likely that humans could trigger high-consequence slab avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
As much as 100 cm of new snow has accumulated over the last week. Strong winds and mild temperatures during the recent storm formed touchy slabs. These slabs may sit atop various weak layers, including surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, and a thin melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes.
A widespread crust that formed in early February is buried around 80 to 140 cm deep. Weak faceted grains may be found above the crust, which is a recipe for high-consequence avalanches.
The remainder of the snowpack is generally settled.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with 0 to 2 cm of snow. 10 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with 0 to 4 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy with 0 to 2 cm of snow. 10 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- Persistent slabs have potential to pull back to lower angle terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Substantial snow accumulation has formed thick storm slabs. These slabs have loaded various weak layers and sliding surfaces. Expect these slabs to remain touchy to human traffic.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of faceted grains above a melt-freeze crust buried 80 to 150 cm deep is a recipe for large, high-consequence avalanches. This snowpack setup will take some time to strengthen.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5