Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
Recent avalanches in the region indicate that the potential for rider triggering remains possible.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, several explosive controlled avalanches sizes 1.5 to 2, were failing on the new storm snow in the Lizard Range.
On Tuesday, a skier accidentally triggered a small (size 1) avalanche on the persistent layer described in the snowpack summary.
On Monday, a group of skiers triggered a persistent slab, for details check this MIN. Explosive control also produced a large persistent slab avalanche that failed on faceted snow above the early February rain crust.
Snowpack Summary
5 to 13 cm of snow recently fell across the region. This new snow may have been blown onto lee slopes creating wind slabs. Otherwise, the new snow sits on previously wind-affected or crusty surfaces. In wind-sheltered areas, 30 to 60 cm of settled snow sits above a 10-20 cm thick, rain crust that formed in early February. This crust remains a concern due to a layer of facets that have formed overtop, making it susceptible to human triggering.
Weather Summary
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with 1 to 2 cm of snow, 15 to 25 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature around -2 °C, freezing level dropping to valley bottom.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with 0 to 2 cm of snow / light rain, 25 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature around 0 °C, freezing level rising to 1700 m.
Friday
A mix of sun and cloud with trace amounts of snow / light rain, 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature around 0 °C, freezing level rising to 1600 m.
Saturday
Partly cloudy with 2 to 6 cm of snow / light rain, 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature around 0 °C, freezing level rising to 1600 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
- Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
- Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
This problem exists where weak facetted snow overlies a crust. Avalanches on this layer could break wider and run farther than expected.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
5 to 13 cm of recent snow has been blown onto lee north and easterly slopes forming new slabs that may remain triggerable for a few more days.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2