Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 15th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
trettie,
Avalanche Canada
Avoid rocky or wind loaded features where the snowpack varies from thick to thin. This is where both wind slabs and buried weak layers can most likely be triggered.
Summary
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday a avalanche was observed in the Hasler area. Details are very limited but it could have been remotely triggered on a wind loaded feature.
A small natural storm and wind slab cycle took place on Thursday. In addition to these small natural avalanches one size 1.5 skier remote was reported. This avalanche took place on a northeast aspect at treeline. It was triggered from 50m away and ran on the early January surface hoar layer that is down 20 to 40.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Wind slabs will likely be found in the alpine on west, north and east aspects. The Rising and falling freezing levels mean tough travel conditions will likely be encountered below 1800m. Freezing levels did not get as high in the north. Check out the MIN from our field team for more details and this MIN from the southern part of the region.
A new layer of surface hoar exists down 10 to 40cm in sheltered terrain features at treeline and above. At this same depth a crust exists on steep south facing slopes.
The two layers of greatest concern are a layer of facets, crust and surface hoar that was buried around Christmas and found around 40 to 70cm deep. The other is a layer of large, weak facets buried in November and found near the bottom of the snowpack. This layer is likely most problematic in alpine terrain, where shallower avalanches could scrub down to these basal facets. These layers may persist for a prolonged period of time, as described in our Forecasters' blog.
In general the snowpack is weak and shallow.
Weather Summary
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light to moderate southeast winds and a low of -9 at 1800m.
Monday
Cloudy with flurries bringing a few centimeters of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds and a high of -3 at 1800m.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds and a high of -4 at 1800m.
Wednesday
A mix of sun and cloud with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Moderate southerly winds and a high of -4 at 1800m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Rider triggerable wind slabs will likely still be found at higher elevations on west, north and east aspects.
Avoid thin rocky features near ridge tops. This is where wind slabs and deeper layers are most likely to be triggered.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
There are 3 weak layers of concern in the snowpack. The first is a layer of surface hoar buried in early January. This layer has recently produced avalanches at treeline, which is where it is most prevelant.
The next is a layer of surface hoar, facets and a crust buried around Christmas. This layer has not produced avalanches in a while but has produced some concerning test results. This layer is also most prevelant at treeline.
The third is a layer of facets and a crust found near the bottom of the snowpack. It is most concerning in the north of the region. It could potentially be triggered at upper treeline/Lower alpine in shallow snowpack areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 16th, 2023 4:00PM
