Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
Danger may reach HIGH as mild temperatures and strong sunshine weaken the snowpack. Large natural avalanches may occur.
Choose small, low angle slopes free from overhead hazard.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Numerous large to very large slab avalanches were triggered naturally and by explosives across the region over the past few days (size 2 to 3.5). Avalanches are failing in both storm snow layers and on a deeply buried persistent weak layer of crust/facets.
Snowpack Summary
Surface conditions currently include sun crusts on south-facing slopes, lightly wind-affected snow, and settling snow.
A widespread crust is buried 75-150 cm deep, and weak facets above this crust have been producing large avalanches throughout the Rockies.
The snow below the crust is mostly strong and bonded.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Mostly clear. 20-40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level drops to valley bottom.
Saturday
Sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon. 30-50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C with freezing level climbing to 2000 m.
Sunday
Snow begins overnight, 5-15 cm.
Mostly cloudy during the day with 5 cm of snow. 30-50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.
Monday
Snow continues overnight, 5-15 cm.
Mostly cloudy during the day with another 5-10 cm possible. 30-40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Conservative terrain selection is critical, choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
- Avoid being on or under sun exposed slopes.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- Cornice failures could trigger very large and destructive avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Avoid areas where the snowpack thins, like steep, rocky start zones at treeline and alpine elevations. Weak layers are more easily triggered here.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Loose Wet
Wet avalanches are more likely on steep, sun affected slopes. Avoid slopes that have moist or wet surface snow.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Wind Slabs
Winds have picked up and loose snow is available to build fresh and reactive wind slabs.
Small wind slabs could step down to deeper weak layers producing very large avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5