Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
The storm may have passed but dangerous avalanche conditions persist. The snowpack is primed for human triggering. Conservative decision-making remains critical.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Numerous natural, skier, and explosive-triggered avalanches up to size 3 have been reported over the last couple of days. Several of these avalanches have failed on or scrubbed down to a crust facet layer buried early in February.
Looking forward, it remains likely that humans could trigger high-consequence slab avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
Substantial snowfall associated with strong southwest wind and warming built storm slabs that likely remain touchy. These slabs have loaded weak faceted snow, surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, and a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes.
A widespread crust that formed in early February is buried around 80 to 120 cm deep. Weak faceted grains may be found above the crust, which is a recipe for high-consequence avalanches.
The remainder of the snowpack is generally settled.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Cloudy with 0 to 5 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -9 °C.
Saturday
Cloudy with 3 to 10 cm of snow. 30 to 50 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature - 15 °C.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with 0 to 4 cm of snow. 20 to 40 southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with 0 to 5 cm of snow. 10 to 30 southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- Persistent slabs have potential to pull back to lower angle terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Substantial snow accumulation has formed thick storm slabs. These slabs are loading various weak layers and sliding surfaces. Expect these slabs to be touchy to human traffic.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of faceted grains above a melt-freeze crust buried 80 to 150 cm deep is a recipe for large, high-consequence avalanches. This snowpack setup will take some time to strengthen.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5