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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2023–Jan 20th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, North Rockies, McBride, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Kakwa, McGregor, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

Avoid steep, shallow and rocky features, especially at ridge crests. You may not see signs of instability but the layers are still there.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday our field team observed a few natural size one wind slabs. These slabs released on lee features just below cornices.

Although there has been a decline in observed avalanche activity, triggering a large persistent slab avalanche remains possible and terrain should be chosen with care.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is gradually accumulating above settled snow from last week's warm storm. Wind slabs can be found on some higher elevation north and east slopes. At lower elevations, a rain crust exists near the surface, with reported elevations extending up to 1800 m in the Cariboos and roughly 1200 m in the northern part of the region.

Check out this MIN from our field team for more details on the concerning layers in the snowpack.

Snowpack depths are shallower than normal, and several buried weak layers have been a concern over the past few weeks. One is a recently buried surface hoar layer found 30 to 50cm deep in sheltered terrain features at treeline and above. At this same depth, a crust exists on steep south facing slopes. Another layer of facets, crust, and surface hoar was buried around Christmas and is now 40 to 80cm deep. Finally, a layer of large, weak facets buried in November is found near the bottom of the snowpack. This layer is likely most problematic in alpine terrain, where shallower avalanches could scrub down to these basal facets.

Recent observations suggest the buried weak layers are gaining strength, but not enough to trust them in high consequence terrain.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy with flurries bringing a few centimeters of new snow. Moderate westerly winds and a low of -9 at 1800m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with flurries bringing a few centimeters of new snow. Moderate to strong west winds and a high of -5 at 1800m.

Saturday

Cloudy with up to 10cm of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds and a high of -5 at 1800m.

Sunday

A mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light to moderate northwest winds and a high of -8 at 1800m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.