Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos, Kakwa, McBride, McGregor, North Rockies, Pine Pass, Quesnel, Renshaw, Robson, Sugarbowl.
Choose mellow terrain, and give the recent snow time to settle and bond with the rest of the snowpack.
Weather has varied around the region, so verify conditions in your area.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Friday, northwest of Monkman Provincial Park, there was a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 in the overnight storm snow. We expect similar avalanches happened in other areas like Pine Pass that saw heavy snowfall.
As the storm moves south, we expect that more snow and continued strong winds will continue to build reactive slabs on Saturday, and weak layers in the upper snowpack may be reaching a tipping point.
Snowpack Summary
Strong wind will continue to form the recent snow into fresh wind slabs in the alpine and treeline. A shift from southwest to northwest wind means that wind loading will be happening on different slopes versus Wednesday and Thursday.
40 to 60 cm of settling storm snow is resting on a mix of surfaces formed in late December or early January, including surface hoar, crusts, and facets. In some places these layers are producing avalanches as the increasing snow load stresses them.
The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well settled.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Cloudy with up to 10 cm of snow, hotspots of 15 cm or more. Less snow expected in the far north of the region. 30 to 50 km/h northwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -5 °C.
Saturday
Cloudy with up to 5 cm of snow. Ridgetop wind easing to 15 to 30 km/h from the west. Treeline temperature -6 °C.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with 2 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h northwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -6 °C.
Monday
Partly cloudy. 50 to 60 km/h west ridgetop wind. Possible temperature inversion above 1500 m. Treeline temperature -3 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Don't let storm day fever lure you into consequential terrain.
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to buried surface hoar.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm snow is forming slabs over weak layers buried in late December and early January. Expect deeper and more reactive slabs on leeward slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3