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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2023–Jan 3rd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

It's still possible for riders to trigger large, persistent slab avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A rider triggered a small avalanches in an opening, as shown in this MIN. The avalanche likely released on one of the weak layers described in the Snowpack Summary and shows that this layer could still be triggered in specific terrain. Caution should be taken in challenging or complex terrain given the uncertainty and consequence of large avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Around 50 cm of snow sits on a hard melt-freeze crust found up to treeline elevations formed by rain on December 26. Moist snow or a surface crust may be found up to around 1600 m on all aspects and up to ridgetop on sun-exposed slopes.

Two deeper layers of surface hoar and facets could still be triggered in specific terrain. These include a 40 to 80 cm deep layer buried mid-December and an 80 to 150 cm deep layer buried mid-November. These layers are generally deeper around Fernie and shallower towards Sparwood and Elkford. The layers may be easier to trigger where they are buried within the top 100 cm of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Clear with no precipitation, 15 km/h southwest wind, light inversion, treeline temperature -5 °C.

Tuesday

Increasing cloud coverage with a trace of snow, 20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -9 °C.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and cloud, trace of new snow, 20 to 30 km/h westerly wind, treeline temperature -12 °C.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, trace of new snow, 20 to 30 km/h south wind, treeline temperature -4 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.