Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 13th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs, Cornices and Deep Persistent Slabs.
jminifie,
Avalanche Canada
Old wind slabs formed last week will be harder to trigger but could still deliver an unexpected surprise. Cornices are large in some areas and could become active if it warms up in the afternoons. Deeper layers should still be on your mind in the Elkford and Flathead areas.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
A few small wind slab avalanches were observed over the weekend and one Cornice failure was observed on Saturday as described in this MIN.
On Friday, several skier-triggered wind slab avalanches were reported in the Fernie area. They were size 1 to 2, occurring in both alpine and open forested terrain, as illustrated in MIN reports here, here, and here.
Good quality riding was reported in sheltered, lower elevation terrain over the weekend.
Deep persistent slab avalanches should still be on your radar in the Elkford and Flathead areas.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 15 cm of new snow is possible Monday night and into Tuesday, which will fall above various layers, including sun crusts and hard wind-affected snow. Sheltered, shaded areas will likely have deeper soft snow from last week.
In the Lizard range specifically, the mid-pack is consolidated with a supportive 10 to 20 cm thick frozen crust buried 80 to 100 cm.
In the Elkford and Flathead areas, deeply buried weak layers are slowly gaining strength but are still a concern, especially in steep rocky terrain features where the snowpack is thin.
Weather Summary
Monday night
Mostly cloudy. 5-10 cm of new snow possible from flurries. Wind changing to north overnight at 10 km/h. Temperature -5ËšC.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud. Now new precipitation. Wind from the northeast at 10 km/h gusting 30 km/h. Temperature -8ËšC to -5ËšC.
WednesdayMostly sunny. Wind from the southwest at 15 km/h. Temperature -10ËšC in the morning rising to -4ËšC in the afternoon. Freezing level up to 700 m. Solar affect is likely.
ThursdayMostly sunny. Wind from the southwest at 10 km/h. Temperature -12ËšC in the morning rising to -5ËšC in the afternoon. Freezing level up to 1100m. Solar affect is likely.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.
- Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Old wind slabs formed last week will be hard to trigger but could still deliver an unexpected surprise. If new snow arrives with more wind on Tuesday, reactive wind slabs will once again form.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Cornice failures have been reported in the area. This is usually associated with the sun coming out and temperatures warming in the afternoon. Pay attention to what's above you and if you are climbing up a corniced ridge, give a wide berth and use your probe to determine if you might be getting too close to the edge!
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of faceted grains near the base of the snowpack remains on the radar for areas of this region where the snowpack is shallow and where a hard melt-freeze crust formed around Christmas doesn't exist (Elkford and Flathead areas). Deep persistent slab avalanches have not been reported in the region for some time, however, the weak snowpack structure in these shallow areas may still be triggered with a heavy load.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 14th, 2023 4:00PM
