Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 13th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Cornices and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada jminifie, Avalanche Canada

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Old wind slabs formed last week will be harder to trigger but could still deliver an unexpected surprise. Cornices are large in some areas and could become active if it warms up in the afternoons. Deeper layers should still be on your mind in the Elkford and Flathead areas.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A few small wind slab avalanches were observed over the weekend and one Cornice failure was observed on Saturday as described in this MIN.

On Friday, several skier-triggered wind slab avalanches were reported in the Fernie area. They were size 1 to 2, occurring in both alpine and open forested terrain, as illustrated in MIN reports here, here, and here.

Good quality riding was reported in sheltered, lower elevation terrain over the weekend.

Deep persistent slab avalanches should still be on your radar in the Elkford and Flathead areas.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15 cm of new snow is possible Monday night and into Tuesday, which will fall above various layers, including sun crusts and hard wind-affected snow. Sheltered, shaded areas will likely have deeper soft snow from last week.

In the Lizard range specifically, the mid-pack is consolidated with a supportive 10 to 20 cm thick frozen crust buried 80 to 100 cm.

In the Elkford and Flathead areas, deeply buried weak layers are slowly gaining strength but are still a concern, especially in steep rocky terrain features where the snowpack is thin.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Mostly cloudy. 5-10 cm of new snow possible from flurries. Wind changing to north overnight at 10 km/h. Temperature -5˚C.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud. Now new precipitation. Wind from the northeast at 10 km/h gusting 30 km/h. Temperature -8˚C to -5˚C.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny. Wind from the southwest at 15 km/h. Temperature -10˚C in the morning rising to -4˚C in the afternoon. Freezing level up to 700 m. Solar affect is likely.

Thursday

Mostly sunny. Wind from the southwest at 10 km/h. Temperature -12˚C in the morning rising to -5˚C in the afternoon. Freezing level up to 1100m. Solar affect is likely.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.
  • Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Old wind slabs formed last week will be hard to trigger but could still deliver an unexpected surprise. If new snow arrives with more wind on Tuesday, reactive wind slabs will once again form.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices

Cornice failures have been reported in the area. This is usually associated with the sun coming out and temperatures warming in the afternoon. Pay attention to what's above you and if you are climbing up a corniced ridge, give a wide berth and use your probe to determine if you might be getting too close to the edge!

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs

A layer of faceted grains near the base of the snowpack remains on the radar for areas of this region where the snowpack is shallow and where a hard melt-freeze crust formed around Christmas doesn't exist (Elkford and Flathead areas). Deep persistent slab avalanches have not been reported in the region for some time, however, the weak snowpack structure in these shallow areas may still be triggered with a heavy load.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

2.5 - 3.5

Valid until: Feb 14th, 2023 4:00PM