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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2023–Jan 15th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, North Rockies, Clearwater, McBride, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

Avoid rocky or wind loaded features where the snowpack varies from thick to thin. This is where both wind slabs and buried weak layers can most likely be triggered.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

A small natural storm and wind slab took place on Thursday. In addition to these small natural avalanches one size 1.5 skier remote was reported. This avalanche took place on a northeast aspect at treeline. It was triggered from 50m away and ran on the early January surface hoar layer that is down 20 to 40.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs will likely be found in the alpine on west, north and east aspects. The Rising and falling freezing levels mean tough travel conditions will likely be encountered below 1600m. Freezing levels did not get as high in the north. Check out the MIN from our field team for more details.

A new layer of surface hoar exists down 10 to 40cm in sheltered terrain features at treeline and above. At this same depth a crust exists on steep south facing slopes.

The two layers of greatest concern are a layer of facets, crust and surface hoar that was buried around Christmas and found around 40 to 70cm deep. The other is a layer of large, weak facets buried in November and found near the bottom of the snowpack. This layer is likely most problematic in alpine terrain, where shallower avalanches could scrub down to these basal facets. These layers may persist for a prolonged period of time, as described in our Forecasters' blog.

In general the snowpack is weak and shallow.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southerly winds. Low of -7 at 1800m.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southeast winds and Freezing levels rising to 1400m.

Monday

Cloudy with flurries bringing around 5cm of new snow. Light to moderate south winds and a high of -3 at 1800m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected. Light to moderate southerly winds and a high of -4 at 1800m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.