Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Sea To Sky, Sky Pilot, Spearhead, Tantalus.
The hits keep coming. A mix of heavy snow and rain will maintain dangerous avalanche conditions on Thursday. Hunting for dry snow in the alpine will put you closest to harm's way.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
A widespread avalanche cycle took place in the region over the weekend and through Monday, with numerous wet slab and wet loose avalanches to size 4 (very large) seen in a wide range of terrain. One report from Tuesday featured a size 4 with a crown fracture over 3 km long!
Looking forward, a switch to snowfall will reinvigorate surface instabilities Thursday. This and the sheer scale of recent natural activity should suggest a very cautious approach to terrain selection.
Snowpack Summary
30-40 cm of new snow may accumulate in the alpine by end of day Thursday, with amounts tapering at lower elevations. The new snow accumulates on a thin existing cover of new snow over newly formed crust above about 2000 m and on rain soaked snow below this elevation.
Below any new crust at treeline, and especially below treeline, the snowpack is largely isothermal.
The mid and lower snowpack consists of various old crusts and is generally well-settled and well-bonded.
Weather Summary
Wednesday night
Cloudy with wet flurries and a possible 10-20 cm of new snow accumulating in the alpine, rain below 1700 m. Southeast alpine winds 30 to 50 km/h.
Thursday
Cloudy with easing flurries bringing 10-20 cm of new snow above 1500 m. Southeast alpine winds 30 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature around 0°C with freezing level around 1600 m.
Friday
Mostly cloudy with flurries continuing from overnight bringing 10-20 total cm of new snow. South alpine winds 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature -1°C with freezing level around 1400 m.
Saturday
A mix of sin and cloud. Alpine winds shifting northerly, 5-10 km/h. Treeline temperature -1°C with freezing level around 1400 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
- Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
- Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
A switch to snowfall at high elevations will result in a new storm slab problem to manage Thursday. Expect this problem to increase in seriousness as you gain elevation.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Continuing rainfall should maintain weak upper snowpack conditions at lower elevations, meaning wet avalanches will remain possible in steep terrain below treeline.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5