Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bull, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
Storm slabs have been reactive - start with conservative terrain and watch for signs of instability.
For the best and safest riding, seek out areas of soft snow sheltered from the wind.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, numerous small loose dry avalanches were observed in the Lizard Range.
On Friday, several small loose dry and storm slab avalanches were triggered by riders in the Lizard Range.
On Thursday, a small naturally triggered wind slab 5 to 15 cm deep was observed in a fan feature in the Lizard Range.
Looking forward, we expect the potential for triggering small storm slabs and loose dry avalanches will remain likely.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 25 cm of very low-density new snow from the last storm has formed small reactive slabs, especially in wind-loaded areas near ridgetops. An additional 10 to 15 cm may fall by the end of the day Sunday, increasing the potential for storm slabs.
The storm snow is sitting on 30 to 60 cm of faceted old snow. Combined, this overlies a persistent weak layer formed in late January which is a crust on sun-exposed slopes and surface hoar elsewhere. There is potential for storm slabs to step down to this deeper weak layer, triggering large avalanches.
The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled with no other layers of concern.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Cloudy with 3 to 8 cm of snow. 15 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.
Sunday
Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow. 5 to 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -13 °C.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with 0 to 4 cm of snow. 5 to 15 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and clouds. 15 to 25 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Approach steep and open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, as buried surface hoar may exist.
- Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs will be most reactive in wind-loaded areas near ridgetops. Loose dry avalanches will also be likely in steep terrain where the new snow hasn't formed a slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
Human-triggered avalanches are possible where a cohesive slab has formed above a persistent weak layer buried 40 to 80 cm. Storm slabs in motion may also step down to this layer.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5