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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2023–Jan 6th, 2023
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.

Rider-triggered avalanches are still possible where the persistent weak layer is closer to the snow surface in shallow snowpack areas.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported in the area.

This rider triggered a small avalanche in an opening, as shown in this MIN. This confirms the persistent weak layer is still a player in the north of this region.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 30 to 40 cm of snow accumulated over the past week has been redistributed by winds in open terrain features, while in sheltered areas soft snow can still be found. These layers sit over a hard melt-freeze crust that can be found up to treeline elevations formed by rain on December 26. This crust is more robust in the south of the region making human triggering of two weak layers deep in the snowpack more difficult.

In the north of our region where the melt-freeze crust is not as supportive, rider-triggered avalanches are still possible on these layers down 30 to 50 cm deep buried mid-December and an 80 to 90 cm deep layer buried mid-November. Triggering these layers is more likely in shallow, rocky terrain features.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, trace amounts of snow possible 10 to 20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -4 °C.

Friday

Cloudy, trace new snow, 20 to 30 km/h southwest wind increasing through the day, treeline temperature -5 ºC.

Saturday

A mix of sun and clouds, trace new snow, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds increasing overnight, treeline temperatures -5 ºC

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, 5 to 10 cm new snow, 20 to 30 km/h decreasing through the day, treeline temperatures -5 ºC

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

There are two weak layers, both composed of surface hoar and facets, anywhere from 40 to 150 cm deep. It may be more likely to trigger these layers where they are buried relatively shallow and where there is no supportive crust.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are likely bonding to previous surfaces, but may be lingering in steep terrain in the alpine.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1 - 2