Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 12th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada shorton, Avalanche Canada

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Use caution in wind-affected areas on Monday as new snow and wind will form fresh wind slabs.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Saturday. On Friday, several skier-triggered wind slab avalanches were reported in the Fernie area. They were size 1 to 2, occurring in both alpine and open forested terrain, as illustrated in MIN reports here, here, and here.

Wind slab avalanches will continue to be a problem on Monday with more snow and wind expected. Deep persistent slab avalanches should also be on your radar in the Elkford and Flathead areas.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15 cm of new snow is possible on Monday, which will fall above various layers, including sun crusts and hard wind-affected snow. Sheltered, shaded areas will likely have deeper soft snow from last week.

In the Lizard range specifically, the mid-pack is consolidated with a supportive 10 to 20 cm thick frozen crust buried 80 to 100 cm.

In the Elkford and Flathead areas, deeply buried weak layers are slowly gaining strength but are still a concern, especially in steep rocky terrain features where the snowpack is thin.

Weather Summary

Sunday night

Cloudy, flurries start in the early morning with trace accumulations of snow, 50 to 70 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -4 ºC.

Monday

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 5 to 15 cm of snow, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -4 °C with freezing level around 1300 m.

Tuesday

Mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries with trace amounts of snow, 20 km/h northeast wind, treeline temperatures drop to -8 °C.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and cloud, no significant precipitation, 30 km/h west wind, treeline temperatures around -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Expect new snow and wind to form fresh wind slabs on Monday. Older wind slabs that formed last week could also still be reactive to human triggering.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs

A layer of faceted grains near the base of the snowpack remains on the radar for areas of this region where the snowpack is shallow and where a hard melt-freeze crust formed around Christmas doesn't exist (Elkford and Flathead areas). Deep persistent slab avalanches have not been reported in the region for some time, however, the weak snowpack structure in these shallow areas may still be triggered with a heavy load.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

2.5 - 3.5

Valid until: Feb 13th, 2023 4:00PM