Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
The reactivity and size of storm slabs will increase throughout the day. Use extra caution in wind-exposed terrain and south-facing terrain where a melt-freeze crust has recently been buried.
A weak layer of basal facets remains a concern in shallow snowpack areas. Avoid high consequence avalanche terrain in these areas.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, several natural and skier-triggered size 1 loose dry avalanches as well as a few small pockets of wind slab. Last week, a couple of bigger wind slabs were reported including this MIN post and this MIN post.
The deep persistent slab problem continues to be a concern for parts of the region. In the nearby Bull River area, this very large older avalanche was observed on Friday by the Avalanche Canada field team which is expected to have occurred on Wednesday.
Snowpack Summary
New snow will bury an upper snowpack that is heavily wind affected in exposed terrain. While a sun crust on the southern aspects has been buried by the recent snowfall.
The middle of the snowpack is well consolidated and sits on a thick crust. The bottom of the snowpack still consists of weak, sugary crystals that are slowly gaining strength in areas with a deeper snowpack.
Deep persistent slab avalanches should still be on your radar in thinner snowpack areas outside of the Lizard Range such as the Elkford area, and the Flathead range.
Weather Summary
Sunday night
Cloudy with light snow, 2 to 10 cm. Moderate westerly alpine winds. Treeline temperatures around -5 C.
Monday
Snowfall continuing through the day, 5 to 15 cm. Light to moderate westerly alpine winds. Treeline temperatures 0 to -5 C.
Tuesday
Cloudy with periods of heavy snow, 10 to 30 cm. Moderate northeast alpine winds. Treeline temperatures drop throughout the day from around -5 to around -20 C by day's end.
Wednesday
Cloudy with sunny periods and trace snow amounts. Moderate northeast alpine winds. Treeline temperatures -20 to -25 C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
- Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Strom slabs will be most reactive in areas that receive higher snowfall amounts and steep, wind exposed slopes where new snow is more likely to form a cohesive slab.
In southerly facing terrain expect new snow to overlay a melt freeze crust, providing an ideal sliding surface for storm slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of faceted grains near the base of the snowpack remains on the radar for areas of this region where the snowpack is shallow and not capped by a hard melt-freeze crust that formed in late December. This describes most areas outside of the Lizard Range such as the Flathead range, and Elkford area.
Remember that small avalanches on the surface have the potential to step down to deep persistent layers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5