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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2024–Jan 7th, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

The heavy dumping of fresh snow may need more time to stabilize. And also just barely cover lower elevation hazards.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

High winds and heavy snowfall limited observations late Friday. In the morning, explosives triggered storm slabs to size 1.5.

On Thursday, riders triggered avalanches to size 1.5 (10-30 cm thick) in the Whistler Backcountry. (see this MIN)

A crust deep in the snowpack (60-100 cm down) last produced avalanches Dec 31, and we suspect this layer is trending dormant.

Snowpack Summary

Over 50 cm in 24 hrs of snow accumulated by Saturday morning! Strong winds quickly impacted falling and loose snow, building reactive slabs and filling lees up to 100 cm deep.

Fresh and recent snow covers a crust buried Jan 1. This crust may exist up to mountain tops, and seems to be thick and supportive to the weight of a human south of Whistler, and more variable in thickness and strength to the north, where it thins out above 1900 m.

Around 30-60 cm off the ground, facets or isolated surface hoar cover an early Dec crust. This layer is trending dormant with the last avalanches occurring on Dec 31st. Snowpack depths 80-150 cm around treeline and decrease rapidly below.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Mostly clear skies with no precipitation. Northwest ridgetop wind to 20 km/h. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

Sunday

Mostly sunny with no precipitation. Northwest ridgetop wind 5-15 km/h. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Monday

Increasing clouds with light flurries. Southwest ridgetop wind increasing to moderate. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Tuesday

Snowing, 25-50 cm starting late Monday. Strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The new snow may require another day to settle and stabilize.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

30-60 cm snowfall in 48 hours will need time to settle and stabilize. Be suspect when transitioning into open and (previously) wind-affected terrain. At lower elevations, the snowpack may be below the threshold for avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

This problem is trending towards dormant, especially where a thick supportive crust is found down 40-100 cm (south of Whistler, this supportive crust reaches mountain tops).

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 3