Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 16th, 2023–Dec 17th, 2023
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Spring like weather may raise avalanche danger on specific terrain features. Watch for wet snow on steep, sun affected slopes and wind slabs in north facing features.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday size 1 human triggered avalanches were reported at all elevations - involving dry snow at higher elevations (primarily on north facing slopes) and wet avalanches at lower elevations where rain had affected the snow. Operators also reported small chunks of cornice releasing on to the snow below - remember these can trigger avalanches and are a hazard on their own.

Please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and sun may moisten the surface snow and break down crusts that likely formed overnight.

A 1-2 cm crust is buried around 10-20 cm deep, under wind affected snow. This crust extends into the alpine and is combined with a layer of surface hoar in sheltered areas.

At treeline and above two layers of concern are buried around 40 and 60 cm deep. Both consist of a crust that tapers at higher elevations, and surface hoar in sheltered areas. No recent activity has been reported on these layers but they continue to be reactive in testing. These layers may become reactive to human triggers during the warming.

Overall, the snow depth remains shallow, hiding early season hazards just below the snow surface.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy with trace amounts of snow possible. Freezing levels rise to 2000 m. Westerly winds, 20-30 km/h.

Sunday

Mostly sunny. Westerly winds, 20-30 km/h. Freezing levels spike to 2500 m in the afternoon (close to 3000 m in more coastal areas), treeline temperatures of +2 °C.

Monday

Increasing cloud. Southwesterly winds, 30-40 km/h. Freezing levels remain above 2500 m overnight and through Monday, treeline temperatures of +3 °C.

Tuesday

Light snow begins overnight and continues on Tuesday, 5-15 cm is possible above 2000 m as freezing levels remain high. Southerly winds, 30-40 km/h.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs may continue to be reactive, especially where they sit over a crust or surface hoar.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Loose Wet

Wet avalanches will be most likely where warm temperatures are combined with sun on south facing slopes. Buried crusts will create ideal sliding surfaces for avalanche activity.

Aspects: South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5