Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
If you venture into the alpine with the clear weather, be aware that old wind slabs linger and new ones could be forming . Cornices are large in some areas and could become active if it warms up in the afternoons. Deeper layers should still be on your mind in the Elkford and Flathead areas.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
One natural size 2 storm slab avalanche was reported from the Lizard area on Monday. This avalanche was in a northeast facing alpine bowl where the storm snow was preserved and deeper.
Good quality riding was reported in sheltered, lower elevation terrain over the weekend.
Deep persistent slab avalanches should still be on your radar in the Elkford and Flathead areas.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10 cm of new snow sits on top of a wind affected upper snowpack. This new snow will be impacted by the wind again this week but to a lesser degree.
In the Lizard range specifically, the mid-pack is consolidated with a supportive 10 to 20 cm thick frozen crust buried 80 to 100 cm.
In the Elkford and Flathead areas, deeply buried weak layers are slowly gaining strength but are still a concern, especially in steep rocky terrain features where the snowpack is thin.
Most areas have a crust and sugary facets near the base of the snowpack.
Weather Summary
Tuesday night
A mix of sun and clouds. Winds from the west at 10 km/h. Temperature -5ËšC.
Wednesday
A mix of sun and clouds. Convective flurries possible. Winds from the southwest 10 km/h gusting 20 km/h. Temperature -7ËšC in the morning rising to -3ËšC in the afternoon with freezing levels up to 700 m.
ThursdayMostly clear. Winds from the southwest at 25 km/h. Temperature -5ËšC in the alpine with freezing levels at 1100 m.
FridayClear with building clouds in afternoon. Flurries possible. Winds from the southwest at 20 km/h. Temperature -4ËšC with freezing levels up to 1200 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
- Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.
- Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Old wind slabs formed last week will be hard to trigger but could still deliver an unexpected surprise. New wind slabs will form with incoming southwest winds.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornice failures have been reported in the area. This is usually associated with the sun coming out and temperatures warming in the afternoon. Pay attention to what's above you and if you are climbing up a corniced ridge, give a wide berth and use your probe to determine if you might be getting too close to the edge!
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of faceted grains near the base of the snowpack remains on the radar for areas of this region where the snowpack is shallow and where a hard melt-freeze crust formed around Christmas doesn't exist (Elkford and Flathead areas). Deep persistent slab avalanches have not been reported in the region for some time, however, the weak snowpack structure in these shallow areas may still be triggered with a heavy load.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5