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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2023–Feb 6th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Powell River, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sasquatch.

Avalanche conditions will deteriorate in the afternoon as new snow and strong winds increase storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering.

There is some uncertainty around the timing of the incoming storm and how much snow will pile up by the end of the day, so be alert to changing conditions and have a safe egress route planned.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs have been reactive in recent days. On Friday and Saturday, we had reports of skier-triggered size 1s, naturals up to size 1.5, and explosive-triggered up to size 2. On Thursday, reports of small slabs being triggered remotely show evidence of a poor bond with underlying surfaces.

If you head to the backcountry please post your reports and photos to the Mountain Information Network, the information is very helpful to forecasters.

Snowpack Summary

The next storm is expected to bring 5-15 cm by the end of the day Monday, bringing recent totals to 20-40 cm sitting over old wind affected surfaces and hard crusts. Strong southwest winds are transporting this new and recent snow into deep pockets of wind slab on north and east facing terrain at upper elevations. At lower elevations, recent precipitation may have fallen as rain.

A crust from mid-January can be found down 40 to 70 cm deep. A number of weak layers exist within the middle and lower snowpack, but the thick crusts sitting above them make triggering avalanches on these layers unlikely. The areas of concern in terms of triggering a deeper layer are shallow rocky areas where the snowpack varies from thick to thin.

Weather Summary

Sunday night

Cloudy. A trace of snow possible. Light southwest wind. Freezing level dropping to 800 m.

Monday

5-15 cm of new snow. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level around 1400 m. Snow line around 1200 m.

Tuesday

10-30 cm new snow overnight, another 5-15 cm during the day. Strong southwest winds. Freezing levels dropping 1400 to 1000 m. Snow line 1200 m dropping to valley bottom.

Wednesday

5-10 cm overnight then clearing to a mix of sun and cloud. Light southwest wind. Freezing level 800 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with isolated flurries, 10-15 cm accumulation. Southwesterly ridgetop winds 40 to 60 km/h. Treeline temperatures warm to -1 ˚C. Freezing levels 1300 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • As the storm slab problem gets trickier, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.