Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
All melt no freeze... and a large avalanche cycle is expected to continue.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Widespread large loose wet and slab avalanche activity is occurring in the region. A small slide blocked the road near Boundary lake at 6pm on Saturday.
Post avalanche observations to the MIN.
Snowpack Summary
As alpine temperatures reach double digits, surface crusts are losing cohesion and amalgamating into moist snow. A crust/facet PWL lingers in the mid-pack in many areas at tree line and above. The main concern is the depth hoar and basal facets at the base of the snowpack.
Weather Summary
A dramatic rise in daytime temperatures and strong solar radiation is forecasted for the next several days. There is also forecasted to be warm air trapped at higher elevations overnight, so don't let cool early mornings at valley bottom mislead you into thinking there has been a good overnight freeze.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Warming temperatures will continue to produce wet loose avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Certain
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
The bottom of the snowpack is inherently weak with well-developed Facets and Depth Hoar. These avalanches have the potential to reach the end of run out zones well below tree line.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 4
Cornices
Cornices will become increasingly unstable as the warm weather continues, and will likely act as triggers for the deep persistent slab problem.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3