Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
The incoming storm is expected to bring continued strong winds and snowfall amounts of up to 10-20 cm between Friday evening and Monday morning. Use caution in areas which are exposed to overhead hazard and show evidence of wind slab development.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Strong winds are contributing to cornice growth and are producing wind slabs in areas where snow is available for transport. Three recent avalanches were observed in the Churchill group originating from steep, rocky terrain and ranged in size from 1.5 to 2.5. Increased avalanche activity is expected throughout the weekend as snow accumulates and the strong winds continue.
Snowpack Summary
The multiple buried crusts within the upper snowpack are starting to lose strength in some areas. The Feb 3rd crust is down 15-30cm in wind protected areas. Strong ridgetop winds are producing wind slabs in the alpine where snow is available for transport. The Persistent and Deep Persistent weak layers continue to produce sudden fractures in tests and have been reactive to cornice failures in steep, rocky terrain.
Weather Summary
The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Saturday's Weather Flurries with accumulation of 5-10 cm.
Alpine temperature: High -5 °C.
Ridge wind west: 25 km/h gusting to 70 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.
- Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of runout zones.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs and cornice growth continue to develop in the alpine.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
This weak layer is buried 20-40cm deep. Human triggering remains possible, particularly in shallow rocky start zones.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
The base of the snowpack is inherently weak and untrustworthy. Human and natural triggering of these basal facets remains possible.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 3