Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Intense wind transport continues to build wind slab at treeline and in the alpine. Minimize your overhead hazard and avoid wind-loaded terrain. If triggered, Wind slabs may step down to the deep persistent problem resulting in large avalanches.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanche activity has tapered off but a widespread avalanche cycle on all aspects in the alpine was observed on Thursday. Mostly size 2-3 and up to size 4. Many of these avalanches started as wind slabs and stepped down to the deep persistent facet layer. Most notably the main Buck Lake slide path and the Churchill South slide path ran into the ski lines. Â
This recent cycle is evidence that we are at or near the tipping point for the deep persistent layer.
Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.
Snowpack Summary
Recent strong winds have redistributed surface snow increasing the wind slab hazard at and above treeline. Ridgetop has been scoured in most locations with wind effect visible throughout the alpine.
The upper snowpack consists of 20-50 cm of settled snow or wind slab sitting on top of a generally weak mid and lower snowpack. Facets and depth hoar linger at the base of the snowpack with the height of snow varying from 60 to 160cm.
Weather Summary
Monday
A mix of sun and cloud.
Precipitation: Nil.
Alpine temperature: High -15 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 10-25 km/h.
Tuesday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: Low -17 °C, High -12 °C.
Ridge wind east: 10-20 km/h.
Wednesday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: Low -27 °C, High -13 °C.
Ridge wind west: 15 km/h gusting to 45 km/h.
Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Recent strong to extreme winds from the SW with some new snow continue to build wind slabs in open areas. Be aware that last weeks north wind may have created some lingering wind slabs in abnormal locations due to reverse loading.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Natural avalanches continue to step down to this layer resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5