Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 17th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.
cgarritty,
Avalanche Canada
Keep an eye on recent wind loading patterns to avoid new slabs, but save some of your mental bandwidth for the deeper issue - a weak basal snowpack structure that continues to demand diligent group management. Regroup in safe locations, space out, and avoid shallow rocky start zones.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
Ski cutting in the Fernie area on Monday yielded small (size 1) wind slab releases after the area received 15 cm of new snow. Natural dry loose releases from steep alpine terrain reached size 1.5.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Forecast light flurries will add to 10-15 cm of recent snow now settling on a crust below 2000 metres and to wind-affected surfaces above this elevation.
A crust/facet layer is down 50-90 cm (and 2-15 cm thick at TL elevation). Where it's thickest, it caps a well settled and consolidated mid-snowpack.
Another crust/facet layer is down 70-150 cm. Below this crust, the basal snowpack is weak and faceted. Treeline snow depths average 120-250 cm.
Weather Summary
Tuesday night
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Light to moderate southwest winds, increasing into the morning.
Wednesday
Cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate southwest winds, potentially strong in the alpine, increasing over the day. Treeline high temperatures around -5.
ThursdayCloudy with scattered flurries bringing less than 5 cm of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds, easing over the day. Treeline high temperatures around -3.
FridayDiminishing cloud and flurries with a further trace of new snow. Light southwest or northwest winds, potentially strong in the alpine, easing over the day. Treeline high temperatures around -6.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
- In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
- Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
Problems
Wind Slabs
10-15 cm of new snow in the Fernie area likely remains available for transport by the next winds to hit the region - in the alpine especially. Expect to come across reactive wind slabs -possibly still forming - as you gain elevation into exposed terrain on Wednesday.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
Weak, faceted grains make up the basal snowpack. Where supportive to riders, a melt-freeze crust may be providing a bridging effect, making it more difficult to trigger deeper layers. Any avalanche triggered this deep will likely be large and destructive. Be especially suspicious of shallow, rocky, or cross-loaded areas with variable snow depths.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 18th, 2023 4:00PM
