Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2024–Jan 13th, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Watch for signs of previous reverse wind loading and dry loose avalanches. Just because it is cold doesn't mean that avalanche can't happen.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Loose dry avalanches to size one from steep rocky terrain were observed across Jasper on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temperatures continue to weaken the snowpack. There is a possibility of reverse wind loading from previous NE winds in the alpine. Cold temperatures can cause a wind slab problem to persist longer than normal. Old persistent weak layers are present in the snowpack but continue to facet and are unreactive in snow pit tests.

Weather Summary

Saturday

Sunny

Precipitation: Nil.

Alpine temperature: High -25 °C.

Light ridge wind.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

Sunday

Sunny with cloudy periods.

Precipitation: Nil.

Alpine temperature: Low -25 °C, High -23 °C.

Light ridge wind.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.