Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Badshot-Battle, Blue River, Central Selkirk, Clemina, Esplanade, Goat, Gold, Grohman, Jordan, Kokanee, North Columbia, North Monashee, North Okanagan, North Selkirk, Premier, Retallack, Shuswap, South Columbia, Valhalla, Whatshan.
Stick to simple terrain and give the storm snow time to settle. Even if you don't see signs of instability several layers in the snowpack could still be sensitive to rider traffic.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Early reports Friday night indicate a natural avalanche cycle to size 3.5 took place early in the morning and tapered off during the day.
Snowpack Summary
A new layer of surface hoar and a crust on south facing slopes can be found under 20 to 40cm of new snow. Wind slabs exist on North, west and east facing terrain at treeline and above. Moist snow will be found below treeline due to high freezing levels and rain.
around 50cm of snow sits over a layer of surface hoar from early January. Below this a well-settled upper snowpack exists.
Several buried weak layers in the mid to lower snowpack continue to be a concern. The most concerning of these layers are A layer of crust, facets and/or surface hoar buried around Christmas down 50 to 90cm and A layer of large and weak facets from mid November near the ground.
This year's snowpack is weaker than usual, as described in our Forecasters' blog.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Stormy with up to 15cmof new snow expected at treeline and above. Rain at lower elevations. Freezing levels around 1400m. Light south winds.
Saturday
Stormy with around 5cm of new snow expected at treeline and above. Light southerly winds. Freezing level rising to 1600m.
Sunday
Cloudy with flurries bringing a few centimeters of new snow. Light southerly winds and freezing levels around 1300m.
MondayCloudy with light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southerly winds and a high of -3 at 1800m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers resulting in very large avalanches.
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
- Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs will continue to be reactive due to the surface hoar and crust they overlie. Continue to choose conservative terrain and assess the bond between slabs and the underlying surface.
There is a likelihood of storm slab avalanches stepping down to deeper layers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
As many as 5 concerning weak layers can be found in the top 1.5m of the snow pack. This is a complicated and weak snowpack. Several of these layers are at a prime depth for human triggering. Keep this in mind when deciding what slopes to ride and always consider the consequences if the slope does avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of large and weak facets sits near the base of the snowpack. This layer has most recently been problematic in lower alpine elevations.
Avoid thin and rocky start zones where weak layers sit closer to the surface, riders are most likely to trigger an avalanche on this layer in terrain with shallow or variable snow depths.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5