Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, South Coast Inland, Stein, Taseko.
Fresh, reactive wind slabs will likely form at upper elevations with strong winds.
Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow with the old surface.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday, numerous wet loose avalanches occurred in steep, sun-exposed terrain as a result of strong sun and warm temperatures. The likelihood of avalanches will increase with ongoing strong winds and rain turning into snow on Tuesday night.
Snowpack Summary
New snow accumulates on moist snow or a crust that exists on all aspects and elevations except high north-facing terrain where dry snow can still be found.
The facet/crust layer that produced large avalanches during early March is buried 80-150 cm deep. While no recent avalanche activity has been observed on this layer, it continues to produce concerning snowpack test results. It has become a low-probability, high-consequence problem on north-facing slopes above 2000 m.
Weather Summary
Tuesday Night
Cloudy with 10 to 20 cm of new snow expected. Ridgetop winds southwest, 40 to 60 km/h. Treeline temperature drops to -5 °C. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom.
Wednesday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated convective flurries, up to 5 cm of accumulation. Ridgetop winds southwest, 10 to 20 km/h. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level rising to 1300 m.
Thursday
A mix of sun and cloud. Ridgetop winds northeast, 20 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature rising to 0 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.
Friday
A mix of sun and cloud. Ridgetop winds northeast, 10 to 20 km/h. Treeline temperature rising to +3 °C. Freezing level rising to 2000 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Use caution on large alpine slopes, especially around thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilities.
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Fresh, reactive wind slabs are expected on northerly aspects at upper elevations, with new snow and strong southwest winds. Be cautious around ridge crests and in steep terrain, where human triggering is most likely.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Persistent Slabs
Concern remains for human-triggering a persistent weak layer on sheltered north aspects above 2000 m. If triggered, avalanches will be large and destructive. Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.
Aspects: North, North East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5