Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead.
Continued high freezing levels with limited overnight refreeze of surface snow will keep the hazard elevated. Natural avalanches are likely. Avoid avalanche terrain.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Numerous natural and artificially triggered size 1 to 2.5 storm slab avalanches were reported on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Looking forward, we can expect this activity to continue as warm temperatures and high freezing levels continue into Thursday. Deeper avalanches running on buried weak layers are also possible.
Snowpack Summary
A limited re-freeze of surface snow with freezing levels remaining high overnight keeps the upper snowpack moist or wet at all elevations.
Where still intact, a crust is buried 30 to 100 cm deep, except on high-elevation north and east-facing slopes.
A surface hoar or facet layer from late January is buried 100 to 180 cm deep on north and east aspects at treeline and above.
Weather Summary
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with showers. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2500 m.
Thursday
Cloudy with flurries beginning in the afternoon, 1 to 5 cm of snow. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +1 °C. Freezing level 2500 to 2300 m.
Friday
Cloudy. Flurries bringing 10 to 15 cm of snow. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1500 to 2000 m.
Saturday
Cloudy. Isolated flurries, 2 to 4 cm of snow. 20 to 30 southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1000 to 1500 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain; avalanches may run surprisingly far.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
- Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain with no overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
Avalanche Problems
Cornices
Cornices are large, looming and becoming weak with continued high freezing levels. A large cornice fall can be dangerous on its own, and can also trigger deep slabs on slopes below.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets is buried 100 to 180 cm deep. This layer will remain active as temperatures stay elevated.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Loose Wet
As temperatures remain elevated, expect a heavy, wet upper snowpack to produce slab and loose wet avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5