Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Looks like spring, feels like spring, but still not quite spring. This weekend will be a test for the snowpack with forecasted sun and temperatures. Start early and finish early. Sun is having the strongest effect at 1400. Choose Ice climbs with no overhead, sunny exposure.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Snowpack Summary
15-20cm of new snow, with moderate SW winds creating active windslab in the immmedate lees. These slabs sit over a sun crust on at low elevations and steep southerly slopes; old wind slab and surface facets in sheltered terrain. The mid-pack is 20 to 40cm of low density facetted snow. The lower snowpack is generally weak with large facets and depth hoar at the base. Snowpack depth varies from 60 to 170cm.
Weather Summary
It looks like spring and at times, feels like spring! You'll need to consider your aspect carefully this weekend. I'm most concerned about the strong radiation on steep solar slopes and cliffs. Rising freezing levels, possibly as high as 1900m.
Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Terrain and Travel Advice
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- It’s possible for avalanche danger to remain elevated into the early evening hours.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Loose snow avalanches will be vary from wet to dry depending on aspect and elevation. If the terrain is steep and protected from wind, a loose snow avalanche is possible. Even these smaller avalanches may trigger the deep persistent slab in isolated spots.
Aspects: South, South West, West.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Wind Slabs
Recent storm snow accompanied by moderate southwest wind has created wind slabs in the alpine and on isolated features at tree line. Wind slabs will become more reactive on sun exposed slopes as temperatures rise. Even a small wind slab may wake up the deep persistent problem.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Wind slab avalanched have stepped down to the deep persistent slab since the last storm meaning proving that large triggers can influence this basal weakness. The likelihood is slowly increasing for this high consequence avalanche problem.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5