Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 2nd, 2023–Dec 3rd, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Be patient and choose mellow terrain. The new snow needs time to settle, and early season hazards are still lurking below the surface.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

It is likely that a natural avalanche cycle occurred during the heaviest part of Friday night's storm. On Sunday, natural avalanche activity should taper off, but human triggered avalanches are still likely on slopes that are above threshold.

See this MIN post regarding touchy conditions on Mt. Seymour on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60 cm of new snow has introduced rapid change to the thin, early season snowpack. In the alpine and upper treeline, rider triggerable storm slabs could exist on slopes that are above threshold. Moderate Southwest winds will likely be forming deeper, reactive pockets of slab in lee features.

Under the new snow you will likely find a variety of early season surfaces, including crusts and 5-15 cm of recent snow. Previously, snow coverage in the region was generally thin, patchy and showing lots of ground roughness. Average snowpack depths at treeline ranged from 20 to 60 cm and tapered off rapidly below treeline.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Light to moderate Southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -5°C.

Sunday

Cloudy. 10-15 cm of new snow expected, or moderate rain, depending on freezing level. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1250 m, as high as 1750 m in the south end of the forecast area.

Monday

Cloudy. Moderate to heavy rain expected (20-40 mm). Moderate to strong south or southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 3000m.

Tuesday

Cloudy. Heavy rain expected (60-90 mm), easing through the day. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 3000 m through the heaviest rain, falling to 1500 m as the storm passes.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
  • Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A large amount of snow recently fell on a thin, early season snowpack. The snowpack is still adjusting to this rapid change. Use extra caution on slopes where previous snowfall had smoothed out rough ground surfaces.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5