Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Start and end your day early. Warm afternoons will increase the avalanche hazard. The deep persistent layers are still in the snowpack. Be careful on high north aspects where there are no crusts above these layers.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Large cornice failures and small wind slabs have been observed at alpine elevations. Wet loose slides continue at lower elevations.
Snowpack Summary
5-20 cm of soft snow exists in sheltered areas. Wind slabs exist on all aspects in the alpine due to recent variable wind loading. The upper snowpack at tree line & below is a series of melt-freeze crusts and moist snow. The mid-pack and lower snowpack is dry, faceted and weak. High north aspects do not have any of crusts in the upper snowpack which may make it easier to trigger the deep persistent layer.
Weather Summary
Sunday is expected to have flurries, 2-8cm of snow, -3 °C, light winds, and 1900m freezing level. Monday could bring more flurries, 5-10cm of snow, -8 to -5 °C, light winds, and 1600m freezing level. Tuesday is more sun, clouds, and -9 to -3 °C. Wednesday is similar to Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures -6 to -1 °C.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Isolated wind slabs have been building from south-west winds and now the winds have switched to a more northerly direction, look out for loading in not the usual places.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
This is combination of our midseason persistent weak layers and the weak facets & depth hoar that live at the bottom of the snowpack. The likelihood of triggering this layer has been decreasing but if triggered, would likely result in a large destructive avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 4
Loose Wet
Warm afternoon temperatures will see wet loose avalanches at all aspects and elevations. These have the potential to step down to deeper layers. Start your day early and pay attention to the overnight refreeze
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2