Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 18th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
zryan,
Avalanche Canada
Avalanche danger will increase throughout the day as an intensifying storm brings strong wind and heavy snowfall. Be prepared to dial back your exposure to avalanche terrain and tune in to changing conditions.
Choose conservative, low-consequence terrain as buried weak layers have the potential to produce large and surprising avalanches as active loading continues.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, several large (size 2-3) persistent slab avalanches occurred with explosive control in the south of the region. These avalanches failed on a weak facet layer formed in late December.
On Tuesday, several natural storm slabs were observed (size 1-2) from the alpine and treeline. Numerous wet loose avalanches were observed at lower elevations where the precipitation fell as rain.
Looking forward to Thursday, stormy conditions will continue. Riders should expect danger to increase throughout the day as intensifying snowfall builds reactive storm slabs. Avoid wind-loaded areas at upper elevations and keep in mind the potential for deeper instabilities to produce large and surprising avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
Continued snowfall will add to 20-40 cm of recent storm snow. At upper elevations, southerly winds are scouring windward areas and redistributing this storm snow into wind slabs in lee areas. Below 1000 m moist snow or a crust can be found at or near the surface.
A weak layer of surface hoar buried in early January is now down 30-60 cm. This layer is spotty in its distribution and is of greatest concern in sheltered and shaded openings at treeline.
Weak layers that were reactive over the Christmas and New Year's period have shown signs of bonding and gaining strength. These include a surface hoar layer buried on Dec 28 found 50 to 100 cm deep and a facet layer buried on Dec 23 found 70 to 120 cm deep.
Weather Summary
Wednesday night
Cloudy with clear periods and isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures drop to a low of -5 °C. Ridge wind southwest 20 km/h gusting to 65 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.
Thursday
Cloudy with snowfall increasing in the afternoon, 5-20 cm of accumulation. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -2 °C. Ridge wind southwest 20 km/h gusting to 70 km/h. Freezing level rises to 600 metres.
FridayCloudy with precipitation, 10-15 cm of new accumulation at higher elevations. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Ridge wind southwest 25 km/h gusting to 90 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1300 metres.
SaturdayMainly cloudy with scattered flurries. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -3 °C. Ridge wind southwest 20 km/h gusting to 65 km/h. Freezing level 700 metres.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
- Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.
- Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
- Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs are expected to grow in size and sensitivity throughout the day if snowfall intensifies. Be prepared to dial back your exposure to avalanche terrain and tune in to changing conditions throughout the day. Expect the deepest and most reactive slabs to exist in wind-loaded terrain at upper elevations.
Keep in mind that storm slab avalanches have the potential to step-down to deeply buried weak layers, resulting in large and consequential avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
A series of storms are adding significant load to buried weak layers in the upper meter of the snowpack. The primary layer of concern is a layer of surface hoar now buried 30-50 cm deep. This layer is spotty in distribution but is most likely to be a concern in sheltered and shaded openings around treeline.
The second layer is comprised of facets and in isolated areas surface hoar that was buried in late December. This layer is now down 70-120 cm. It has shown evidence of strengthening but remains on our radar as active loading continues.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 19th, 2023 4:00PM
