Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 16th, 2024–Mar 17th, 2024
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Get an early start to the day before the afternoon heat arrives and destabilizes mountain slopes and natural avalanche activity increases.

Confidence

No Rating

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet avalanches occurred on many steep sunny aspects. Large slabs have been observed across Jasper running on the Feb Crust and some stepping down to ground. Saturday's explosive control work released a few size two slabs and wet loose avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

The forecasted warmup will be a dramatic change to the surface and mid-pack condition of the snowpack. This change will happen over an extremely reactive crust interface down 35-60cm. This persistent weak layer has been consistently producing large natural avalanches. The equally worrisome basal depth hoar makes up the bottom third of the snowpack. HS ranges from 80 to 130cm.

Weather Summary

Sunday and Monday will be a mix of sun and cloud, 3 °C, light winds. Sunday will be 3300 metres freezing level and Monday will be 2300 metres.

Mountain Weather Forecast is available @ Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Strong and extended solar and temperature change is expected on all aspects. Open and exposed terrain will accelerate this process and may initiate deeper instabilities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Certain

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

This problem layer is the crust and facets created by early February's warm spell. It is down 30-90 cm in the snowpack and is a 1-10 cm thick crust or multiple crusts with a layer of weak facets above.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The base of the snowpack is inherently weak and untrustworthy. Tickling this deep layer would result in a high consequence avalanche. Any avalanche in the upper snowpack has the potential to step down to the base of the snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5