Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
A substantial amount of new snow has accumulated over a weak underlying snowpack, creating a tense and unpredictable situation.
These conditions pose a significant risk of human-triggered avalanches on any slope, warranting extreme caution and careful risk assessment.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Widespread evidence of avalanche cycle up to size 3.5. Regionally avalanche observations are typically deep, with wide propagations.
Snowpack Summary
Recent storms have brought a further 20-30cm adding to the previous 70-80cm since March 9th. Below this new load, the snowpack is complicated and reactive, having multiple crusts and facet layers including the deep persistent basal layer.
Weather Summary
Overnight: Clear periods. No Precip. Low -12 °C. Light winds.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High -6 °C. Light winds. Freezing level: 1600m
Thursday: Cloudy with Sunny periods. No Precip. Low -8 °C, High -4°C. Light winds. Freezing level: 1700m
Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. Isolated flurries. Low -9 °C, High -4 °C. Light winds. Freezing level: 1800m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
This avalanche problem is associated with a weak facet and crust layer buried at the end of January approximately 70cm down in sheltered areas. This includes a crust layer formed in early March below the recent storm snow which is prominent on solar aspects.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5
Wind Slabs
Developing, if triggered expect to initiate lower weaker persistent layers creating a large avalanche.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
Well developed facets and depth hoar at the bottom of the snow pack can produce large avalanches. Several big avalanches released during and immediately after the March 7th storm. Be suspicious of any slopes that have not released naturally.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5